Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 ''01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC) First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools . 10L. 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC) November Is here, but WPac is sleeping. =) ''Ryan1000 17:16, October 31, 2012 (UTC) 25W.NONAME Tropical Depression 25W No longer sleeping. Suppose to be a WPAC-NIO crossover =D. Isaac829 01:35, November 15, 2012 (UTC) Dead.Allanjeffs 01:56, November 15, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 25W =( --Isaac829 02:11, November 15, 2012 (UTC) December Aside from Bopha existing in this month, there's nothing new that's formed. Ryan1000 17:42, December 6, 2012 (UTC) 27W.WUKONG Tropical Depression 27W (Quinta) Probably the last depression of the year.Isaac829 20:51, December 24, 2012 (UTC) This may become Tropical Storm Wukong before it hits the Philipines, but this will not be anything like Bopha. Probrably will just be a rainmaker for the islands, but nothing too severe. Ryan1000 21:48, December 24, 2012 (UTC) Now named Quinta by PAGASA.Isaac829 22:42, December 24, 2012 (UTC) Will be the 25 and porbably the last storm of the basin. it make actually quite good this year with 25.Allanjeffs 22:56, December 24, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Wukong Christmas Surprise for the Philippines.--Isaac829 02:58, December 25, 2012 (UTC) :It has made landfall.Isaac829 16:12, December 25, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Wukong Gone.--Isaac829 18:04, December 28, 2012 (UTC) I'm really glad..... :D Raraah, Awesome Pony 19:32, December 29, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Here's my predictions: *Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths. *Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass. *Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created. **Ambo - 5% - Probably not. *Guchol - 35% - 27 deaths and evacs, but Talas didn't retired last year, so this shouldn't either. **Butchoy - 0% - Barely affect(ed) the Philippines. *Talim - 15% - Only some crops. **Carina - 0% - No. *Doksuri - 40% - Not that much. **Dindo - 30% - Not sure that's enough to make the name retire. *'Khanun - 50% - Lots of damage in DPRK.' **Enteng - 0% - No effects. *'Vicente - 45% - Less damage than I thought, but it has a chance.' **Ferdie - 30% - Wasn't that bad. *'Saola - 60% - Quite some damage.' **Gener - 20% - Maybe. *'Damrey - 45% - See Vicente.' *'Haikui - 80% - Lots of damage in the Philippines, yet so far away. And the damage in China.' *Kirogi - 0% - No impacts at all. *Kai-tak - 30% - Not bad. **Helen - 20% - Haikui was worse. *Tembin - 30% - Meh. **Igme - 0% - Nope. *'Bolaven - 55% - Quite some damage in both Koreas.' **Julian - 0% - Nah. *'Sanba - 45% - Some waves in Korea.' **Karen - 20% - Some flooding, but I dont see this retiring. *Jelawat - ? **Lawin - 15% - Just rain. *Ewiniar - 0% - I don't think so. *Maliksi - 0% - Per above. *Gaemi - 5% - Probably less damage than Pakhar. **Marce - 0% - Just a little rain. *Prapiroon - 0% - See Sanvu. **Nina - 0% - Nope. *Maria - 0% - Nah. *Son-Tinh - 20% - Vietnam and China survived the RI. **Ofel - 20% - Didn't do much. *'Bopha - 85% - Probably.' **Pablo - Gone. *Wukong - 10% - Little damage. **Quinta - 10% - Not much damage. Isaac829 18:06, December 28, 2012 (UTC) Bopha is retired.Isaac829 20:46, February 6, 2013 (UTC) : Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC) Mine: JMA: #Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme. #Sanvu - 0% - No. #Mawar - 1% - I doubt it. #Guchol - 5% - Yes, there were some effects, but not that bad. #Talim - 10% - Another possible one, but not that likely. #Doksuri - 25% - More damaging then Talim, so it has a possible chance. #''Khanun - 70% - South Korea might consider this damaging, and it is.'' #Vincente - 40% - A scare for Hong Kong, but it could've been much worse. #Soala - 30% - Hit me in China, but outshadowed by Damrey and Haikui. #Damrey - 45% - Also hit me, but Haikui has a better chance of going. #'Haikui - 90% - Damaged my relative's houses, combined with its other damage, yes.' #Kirogi - 0% - See Sanvu's section. #Kai-tak - 30% - Maybe so. #''Tembin - 75% - Caused the effects in Taiwan.'' #''Bolaven - 80% - Rare Russia cyclone, and also hit me and lots of other places.'' #''Sanba - 70% - Strong storm both meteorologically and impactwise.'' #''Jelawat - 40% - Another storm with a possible chance.'' #Ewiniar - 0% - See Sanvu and Kirogi's sections. #Maliksi - 0% - See Sanvu, Kirogi, and Ewiniar's sections. #Gaemi - 1% - See Mawar's section. #Prapiroon - 0% - See Mawar's section. #Maria - 0% - See Sanvu, Kirogi, Ewiniar, and Maliksi's sections. #Son-Tinh - 25% - Damage isn't negliable, but still not in favor of retirement. #'Bopha - 95% - Washi 2.0.' #Wukong - TBA - Still Active PAGASA: #Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse. #Butchoy - 0% - Had no Philippine effects. #Carina - 0% - No Cosme here. #Dindo - 4% - I still doubt Dindo will go. #Enteng - 0% - Had no Philippine effects. #Ferdie - 2% - Minor Philippine effects. #Gener - 1% - Some moderate effects in the Philippines. #Helen - 30% - Not that damaging. #Igme - 1% - What did the Philippines see? #Julian - 0% - See Butchoy's section. #Karen - 0% - See Butchoy and Julian's sections. #Lawin - 1% - See Igme's section. #Marce - 1% - See Butchoy, Julian, and Karen's sections. #Nina - 0% - See Enteng's section. #Ofel - 20% - I don't think so. #'Pablo - 100% - Already retired by PAGASA.' #Quinta - TBA - No damage or death reports just yet. AndrewTalk To Me 15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC) : Are you sure about giving 3% to Khanun?Isaac829 16:09, August 14, 2012 (UTC) Here's mine: JMA: *Pakhar - 1% - Very little chance. *Sanvu - 0% - No. Not at all. Ever. *Mawar - 0% - No chance. *Guchol - 15% - Has slim chances of retirement. *Talim - 0% - See Sanvu and Mawar's sections. *Doksuri - 5% - I don't think so. *'Khanun - 70%' - Lots of damage and deaths in DPRK, maybe a candidate for retirement. I didn't expect that to happen though. *''Vicente - 50%'' - Wow, shocked me a lot when intensified to a Category 4, but has less damage. Though damage is considerably light as of now, China or Hong Kong may request Vicente to be retired. So it's a 50/50 for me. *''Saola - 35%'' - Moderate damage in Taiwan and the Philippines, so there is a very slim chance that Saola may be retired. *Damrey - 10% - I don't think so. *''Haikui - 90%'' - Philippines: severely affected; China: also got a big, bad blow from this storm; so, there's a very big chance of retirement for Haikui. *Kirogi - 0% - see Talim. *Kai-tak - 10% - Maybe not. *''Tembin - 35%'' - I don't think so, but who knows? Maybe Taiwan may request for Tembin to be retired. *'Bolaven - 60%' - Significant damages in the Korean Peninsula (North and South Korea), so it has chances of retirement in the long run. *''Sanba - 30%'' - There are chances that this may be retired; it's a very intense storm, and had effects in the Korean Peninsula and Japan. *Jelawat - 5% - No reported damages, but still a Category 5. *Ewiniar - 0% - see Kirogi. *Maliksi - 0% - per above. *Gaemi - 5% - Only some significant effects in Vietnam and the Philippines. *Prapiroon - 1% - Michael's equivalent in the Western Pacific. Almost no chance of retirement here. *Maria - 0% - see Maliksi, Ewiniar, Kirogi and Talim's sections. *''Son-Tinh - 20%'' - Not that damaging. Philippines and Vietnam have seen more disastrous storms than Son-Tinh, like Xangsane in 2006. *''Bopha - 95%'' - See Pablo's below. Further destruction will merit Bopha's certain removal from the WPac naming lists. PAGASA: *Ambo - 0% - No. *Butchoy - 0% - I really doubt it. *Carina - 0% - No damage in the Philippines. A fish. *Dindo - 0% - I don't think so, another fish. *Enteng - 0% - Barely affected the Philippines. *Ferdie - 0% - Not that much damage. *''Gener - 30%'' - Maybe? But damages and deaths were not as high as compared to the previous storms that affected the islands. *''Helen - 51%'' - P500 million damages, but not enough. *Igme - 0% - Stayed in the Philippines for a while, but no significant effects. *Julian - 0% - No. Not at all. *Karen - 0.01% - An intense typhoon, but no effects on Philippine land. *Lawin - 0.001% - Per above. *Marce - 2% - Caused some rainfall in the Philippines, but only slight effects. *Nina - 0% - No damages in the Philippines. *Ofel - 10% - Despite all the news reports of the severe damage in the central part of the country, still, it did not cause PHP 1 billion in damages, it didn't even reach PHP 100 million! 24 deaths for Ofel isn't enough to cause its retirement, unless it may pull out a Cosme. *''Pablo - 100%'' - To be detemined yet, but I'm concerned to the people in the Visayas & Mindanao regions of the Philippines. It might pull out a Nitang or Undang (Ike and Agnes respectively; both 1984), or worse, like Titang (Kate; 1970), Ruping (Mike; 1990), Nanang (Lingling; 2001), or Sendong (Washi; 2011). If the worst would really happen, hence, Bopha/Pablo would be Sandy's counterpart in the Western Pacific for this season. "Dead and Gone" from the lists. 475 deaths and damages worth PHP 4 billion are enough to merit Pablo's retirement, according to PAGASA's criteria for retirement. Legend: * - italicized' '(20-59% chance of retirement); bold (60-89% chance of retirement); bold and italicized ''(90-100% chance of retirement); normal font (>10% chance of retirement) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:03, September 22, 2012 (UTC) Well, now that we have quite a few storms, here's mine: JMA names: *Pakhar - 5% - Nothing too severe. *Sanvu - 0% - Not a chance. *Mawar - 0% - As with Sanvu. *Guchol - 10% - I won't say it did nothing, but if Talas wasn't retired last year for 73 deaths and 600 million in damage, Guchol doesn't stand a chance. *Talim - 0% - Nah. *Doksuri - 1% - Won't say it was a complete fish, but still no retirement here. *Khanun - 65% - Pretty bad, but not too sure...Korea's seen worse. *Vicente - 55% - It was destructive and it has a shot of retirement, but the thing that shocks me most about Vicente is how much worse it could've been. This was probrably the closest call China has seen in a long time. It was very nearly a doomsday disaster for Hong Kong. *Saola - 25% - Caused some flooding in Taiwan, but not extremely bad. *Damrey - 10% - This ended up being interesting for China, but at least it missed Shanghai and overall damage wasn't too severe. *Haikui - 85% - Another storm for China, and by golly, what a storm. I never knew it was this bad. This thing sat over China for several days, and although only 19 or so people died, 2 billion dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This thing has a serious chance of retirement, and also the only storm named Haikui, having replaced 2005's Longwang. *Kirogi - 0% - What's that now? *Kai-Tak - 35% - Something reasonable, but nothing severe. *Tembin - 35% - Not as severe as Bolaven. *Bolaven - 50% - Kind of a toss-up. It was bad, though they've seen worse. Certainly has a shot though. *Sanba - 30% - 379 million and 2 deaths. We'll see. *Jelawat - 20% - Nothing exceptionally severe. *Ewiniar - 0% - Nothing expected out of this. *Maliksi - 0% - Fail. *Gaemi - <5% - Nothing severe in Vietnam. *Prapiroon - 0% - Fishie. *Maria - 0% - Nope, nothing to say for Maria. *Son-Tinh - 25% - Not negligible, but probrably not enough to retire. *Bopha - 100% - With over 1,000 deaths, we might as well kick this one off the list. PAGASA names: *Ambo - 1% - Not very likely to happen. *Butchoy - 0% - Hardly any damage in the Philippines. *Carina - 0% - No damage to the islands. *Dindo - 0% - See Carina. *Enteng - 0% - Not a chance. *Ferdie - 5% - Not as bad as other storms. *Gener - 10% - As with Ferdie. *Helen - 30% - Something, but not devastating. Has a shot considering their standards though. *Igme - 0% - No damage to the islands. *Julian - 0% - Again, nothing to the Philipines. *Karen - 5% - No big impacts in the Philipines. *Lawin - 0% - Not a scratch to the islands. *Marce - 0% - Nothing to the Philipines. *Nina - 0% - Not expected to hit the islands. *Ofel - 10% - Nothing that bad to the Philipines. *Pablo - 100% - Has been retired. Impressive season thus far, but not as bad as it could've been, especially with Vicente. The Philippines were much luckier than last year, that's for sure. ''Ryan1000 02:44, August 13, 2012 (UTC) :Ryan, are you sure about 0% for Khanun? It worsened a nasty flooding situation in North Korea that has killed at least 169 people. http://www.bnonews.com/inbox/?id=1007 --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, August 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Ryan, are you really sure about what you gave to Khanun? - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Sorry, I was looking at a completely different storm. Couldn't say no to that, but not 100%. Ryan1000 00:24, August 22, 2012 (UTC) Earlier this month, Bopha got retired. However, Haikui is staying on the list, despite the deaths and damage caused by the storm. A replacement name has not yet been chosen though. Ryan1000 14:10, February 28, 2013 (UTC) :Bopha's replacement name has been chosen by Cambodia. It is Ampil, which means "tamarind". AndrewTalk To Me 12:41, April 6, 2014 (UTC)